Summary

• It’s Robinhood, but actually good for you
• The company is in great shape
• Permabears and bulls have reasons to love it
• The brand is (let me explain) the next JPMorgan Chase

Thesis

• SoFi is actually a great product. Is it the BEST? Fuck no. But it’s like the goldilocks/Anna Kendrick of all apps. The Friday night reliable.
• The company is going for this generation’s next big bank. It is high-interest, chartered (4.3% APY) and offers everything you need under the sun.
• The whole company’s theme is: “Get your money right.” They want to be the one-stop shop for all your MONEY needs and they do it with a bank teller smile.
• SoFi will ride or DIE with you. Student loan refi, your job’s direct deposit, a loan for that cock ring, a credit card for that solo trip to Thailand, a HELOC for that YOLO stock play. It goes on and on.
• They have consumers in mind, and not in a fake old lady See’s Candy kind of way. For example: if you lose your job and can’t pay your student debt, they will pause your payments and help you find a job. No joke. Look beyond the news and you’ll see people are over the moon about their relationship with SoFi.
• They have a few bad spots (dogshit trading platform and ETFs that never move), but they are trying so fucking hard. I could go on and on, but it’s 5:49am (couldn’t sleep, came up with this post in a fever dream) and I have a ton more to write.
• They also have Galileo and Technisys, which are like new PVC pipes for the financial system. I’m literally too smoothbrained to explain this, all you need to know is there is a lot of real interest from banks and companies to use these products. sofistock has nerds who can explain this to you.

• Okay here comes the boring stuff, so skip this if you don’t care about amateur due diligence.
• Remember when banks used to pay good interest, then you realized they were pocketing it all? People are realizing and going to SoFi. When the bank crisis happened and everyone was moving their money out, SoFi actually GAINED deposits. The company has said they are on-track to add $2B each quarter, and management are known to low-ball their estimates. NINETY PERCENT of their customers use direct deposit for their premium membership SoFi Plus, which will only accelerate the trend. You know how hard it is to change banks with direct deposit. Sticky as shit.

• SoFi has EIGHT fucking quarters of consecutive revenue growth, is EBITDA profitable (whatever that’s worth to you), and is projected to be GAAP profitable by Q4. I think there’s an outside chance this happens in Q3. Dig into it more if you want to Burry it https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2023/q1/Q1-23-Investor-Presentation_.pdf
• SoFi is growing WHILE student loans have been paused. Name a better miracle. They replaced it by diversifying their business in financial services (e.g. the shit I mentioned earlier) and other loans.
• While most banks have been selling their loan books at a loss to manage higher interest rates, SoFi have been keeping theirs to maturity and getting a higher return. There is a lot of debate into this, especially around how they calculate mark to market, so again do your own DD about this.
• By the way: “there are many reasons insiders sell a stock, but only one reason to buy.” The CEO Anthony Noto is eating pork and beans like me buying the stock like CRAZY. I mean just look at this degeneracy. He knows he has a chance to become the next billionaire bank CEO Jamie Dimon and has purchased back $13.6m dollars worth of shares (1/5 of his total comp so far lmfao).

• Big picture time. Full disclosure, I’m a permabear. I literally have the worst outlook on things and I metaphorically killed my therapist with my doom and gloom. This country is so levered up to the tits it’s just one gentle breeze away from collapsing.
• But you know who always gets paid? By hook and crook, the banks will get what they’re owed. If not we are all fucked and/or there will be a bailout. If everything is going to shit, banks are the least dogshit shit. Would you rather buy a stock with a tremendous amount of debt super dependent on consumer spending, or something that will make money in a depression?
• I said this was a stock for everyone. For the permabulls, everything is fine and SoFi is growing its metrics like a rocket ship. What is there to lose? The management team has signaled good outlooks and the stock price has gone up consecutively since June 1st.
• For value investors, this stock is still near book value. Most bank stocks are, but considering its fair value by Morningstar ($16) or PT by well-known analysts ($8-12) there are still some mArGiN oF sAfEtY
• Growthies, this is a tech stock BABY. They are the AWS of finance! They use tech to analyze loan risk. They have AIAIAIAI in a chat bot! Upside everywhere
• Oh and by the way, $SOFI is not correlated with its peers. Look at $LC $UPST and other fintech companies in the sector. In my mind it’s becoming the Nubank of America.
• The Fed is expected to “skip” rate hikes next week. Long term that means APY is probably plateauing and on a downward trajectory. But if you know SoFi has done nothing but good and given you the best interest rate, why move?

• Okay let’s start with them suing the government for pausing student loans. The CEO has addressed this multiple times: they support student loan FORGIVENESS, but when it comes to PAUSING payments for borrowers who don’t qualify, they thought the 3rd year was excessive. Yes they shit the bed bad for that, but they’ll recover.
• Aside from the revenue, a big reason they did this is because the CEO has integrity. Like too much integrity to let this go for shareholders. Anthony Noto grew up working class, graduated from West Point, and rose through the ranks in the finance world. Imagine if Charlie from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was real and became a banking god.
• His track record is insane. CFO for the NFL during record growth. COO for Twitter where he was putting out garbage fires. He knows how to run shit, and now he’s back in finance after SoFi booted the last CEO for being pervy.
• One downside, he is boring as shit. He won’t talk about who’s a pedo, how Soros is evil or some other drama. He only talks about banking and banking accessories I tell you what. Bank Hill
• Look at his Twitter Likes. https://twitter.com/anthonynoto/likes He knows something is brewing, and he gets a big payday if the stock hits $45.
• Back to the company. At a recent fintech conference hosted by Piper Sandler, Noto announced that SoFi has a Net Promoter Score (how much people like the brand) of 80 for its loan business. For context, American Express has 52. The math says SoFi is literally 54% better.
• Maybe part of the reason is because they have the naming rights to a football stadium in Los Angeles. One where little kids go to see Taylor Swift and grown ass men watch other grown ass men smack into one another. Where it’s mentioned all the time for being state of the art and environmentally friendly in the largest entertainment market. WHERE THEY WILL HOST MULTIPLE WORLD CUP GAMES AND OLYMPIC SPORTS.
• I mentioned the SPAC bagholders. They still exist and have been pounding nonstop about the stock all the way down. There are some stonk flashbacks here that are about to explode.

BUT BUT BUT…

• iTs pRiCeD iN – Wall Street is only getting a taste of this dildo. Once the annual shareholder meeting comes along next week and estimates come in better than expected on earnings, this next door 2 turns into a 10.
• Student loans defaults are coming, you stupid fuck – You think the bank will let you go to Disneyland once they start asking for their money? They will garnish wages and withhold taxes on you plebs. Grow up or move to Vietnam. Or, just maybe, the stock goes up and you use the profits to pay off the ball and chain?
• This is literally your first time posting to WSB – Yes, I’m a fucking worm lurking in the shadows. This will be the one and only thesis I put out.
• Wedbush has a PT of $3, this thing is going down – Go ahead and listen to David Chiaverini, who has a success rating of 35% and has no skin in the game https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/david-chiaverini Or me, who’s about to mortgage everything because he see’s asymmetric risk.
• Why post now? – I genuinely think this will get re-rated with a soft tech valuation of $32, and we’re at the cusp of it happening.
• What will change the price – Market realization, better than expected results coming soon, major deals announced, new product releases planned this year. Literally yesterday they announced “SoFi at Work”, a program to allow employers to help contribute to student loan payments.

In Conclusion